black swan theory

Bad beat – Term in poker

Butterfly effect – Idea that small causes can have large effects

Currency crisis – When a country's central bank lacks the foreign reserves to maintain a fixed exchange rate

Dark horse – Previously less known thing becoming prominent

Deus ex machina – Contrived device to resolve the plot of a dramatic work

Domino effect – Cumulative effect produced when one event sets off a chain of other events

Dragon king theory – Event that is both extremely large in effect and of unique origins

Extreme risk – Low-probability risk of very bad outcomes

Falsifiability – Property of a statement that can be logically contradicted

Global catastrophic risk – Hypothetical global-scale disaster risk

Hindsight bias – Type of confirmation bias

Holy grail distribution – Probability distribution with a positive mean and a right fat tail

Kurtosis risk – Term in decision theory

List of cognitive biases

Long tail – Feature of some statistical distributions

Miracle – Event not explicable by natural or scientific laws

Normal Accidents – 1984 book by Charles Perrow

Normalcy bias – Disbelief or minimization in response to threat warnings

Outside Context Problem – 1996 Book by Iain M. Banks

Rare events – Events unlikely to occur

Reasonably foreseeable – Failure to exercise reasonable care

Tail risk – Risk of statistically extreme events

Taleb distribution – Type of probability distribution in economics

Technological singularity – Technological growth scenario

Uncertainty – Situations involving imperfect or unknown information

Wild card (foresight)